Statistical Models for Political Science Event Counts: Bias in Conventional Procedures and Evidence for the Exponential Poisson Regression Model
ثبت نشده
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Statistical Models for Political Science Event Counts: Bias in Conventional Procedures and Evidence for the Exponential Poisson Regression Model
This paper presents analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence on models for event count data. Event counts are dependent variables that measure the number of times some event occurs. Counts of international events are probably the most common, but numerous examples exist in every empirical field of the discipline. The results of the analysis below strongly suggest that the way event count...
متن کاملA Linear Poisson Autoregressive Model: The Poisson AR(p) Model
Time series of event counts are common in political science and other social science applications. Presently, there are few satisfactory methods for identifying the dynamics in such data and accounting for the dynamic processes in event counts regression. We address this issue by building on earlier work for persistent event counts in the Poisson exponentially weighted moving-average model (PEW...
متن کاملJackknifed Liu-type Estimator in Poisson Regression Model
The Liu estimator has consistently been demonstrated to be an attractive shrinkage method for reducing the effects of multicollinearity. The Poisson regression model is a well-known model in applications when the response variable consists of count data. However, it is known that multicollinearity negatively affects the variance of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the Poisson regressio...
متن کاملBayesian Inference for Heterogeneous Event Counts
This paper presents a handful of Bayesian tools one can use to model heterogeneous event counts. In many political science applications we are interested in modeling the number of times a particular event takes place. While models for event count cross-sections are now widely used in political science (King, 1988, 1989b), little has been written about how to model counts when contextual factors...
متن کاملDrift Change Point Estimation in the rate and dependence Parameters of Autocorrelated Poisson Count Processes Using MLE Approach: An Application to IP Counts Data
Change point estimation in the area of statistical process control has received considerable attentions in the recent decades because it helps process engineer to identify and remove assignable causes as quickly as possible. On the other hand, improving in measurement systems and data storage, lead to taking observations very close to each other in time and as a result increasing autocorrelatio...
متن کامل